Intuitive Theories as Grammars for Causal Inference
نویسندگان
چکیده
This chapter considers a set of questions at the interface of the study of intuitive theories, causal knowledge, and problems of inductive inference. By an intuitive theory, we mean a cognitive structure that in some important ways is analogous to a scientific theory. It is becoming broadly recognized that intuitive theories play essential roles in organizing our most basic knowledge of the world, particularly for causal structures in physical, biological, psychological or social domains (Atran, 1995; Carey, 1985a; Kelley, 1973; McCloskey, 1983; Murphy & Medin, 1985; Nichols & Stich, 2003). A principal function of intuitive theories in these domains is to support the learning of new causal knowledge: generating and constraining people’s hypotheses about possible causal relations, highlighting variables, actions and observations likely to be informative about those hypotheses, and guiding people’s interpretation of the data they observe (Ahn & Kalish, 2000; Pazzani, 1987; Pazzani, Dyer & Flowers, 1986; Waldmann, 1996). Leading accounts of cognitive development argue for the importance of intuitive theories in children’s mental lives and frame the major transitions of cognitive development as instances of theory change (Carey, 1985a; Gopnik & Meltzoff, 1997; Inagaki & Hatano 2002; Wellman & Gelman, 1992). Here we attempt to lay out some prospects for understanding the structure, function, and acquisition of intuitive theories from a rational computational perspective. From this viewpoint, theory-like representations are not just a convenient way of summarizing certain aspects of human knowledge. They provide crucial foundations for successful learning and reasoning, and we want to understand how they do so. With this goal in mind, we focus on
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